Should California back off on 2026 zero-emission car mandates?

Analysts and trade groups say the mandates are unrealistic

Visitors look at the new 2025 Volkswagen ID. Buzz at the San Diego International Auto Show at the Convention Center downtown on Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. (Photo by Sandy Huffaker for The San Diego Union-Tribune)

The first iteration of zero-emission vehicle sales mandates in California goes into effect next year. But doubts have been raised about whether the targets can be met.

Starting next year, at least 35% of manufacturers’ new passenger car and truck sales must be electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids or hydrogen-fuel cell vehicles, known as ZEVs (zero-emission vehicles) for short. The percentages step up each year until hitting 100% in 2035.

While some carmakers like Tesla are selling more than enough ZEVs to meet the mandate, it’s estimated that sale rates for other manufacturers hover at 10% to 12%.

Analysts and trade groups say the mandates are unrealistic because the rate that consumers are buying ZEVs is not moving at a quick enough pace to meet California’s annual requirements. Yet proponents say the targets are necessary because about half of the greenhouse gas emissions in California come from the transportation sector.

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