Will California Meet Newsom's 2035 EV Deadline? It Won't Even Hit the 2026 Target
- Think Big
- Apr 27
- 1 min read
Updated: May 5
It was with brash confidence that Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that by 2035, the only new cars and light trucks sold in California would be emission-free.
Critics, rightly, suggested that he couldn’t reshape consumer choice and entirely reorganize the state’s auto fleet through an executive order, or a phony codification of the order by the California Air Resources Board. An upcoming target is surely going to be missed.
Before 2035, the state is supposed to hit interim markers. When 2030 rolls around, 68% of all new-car sales are to be zero-emission vehicles. The benchmark for 2026 – which is actually this year because the ‘26 models will arrive at dealerships in the fall – is 35%.
If total sales of new cars and light trucks in 2026 equal 2025 sales of 1.8 million, a number that ticked up over the previous two years, then to reach the 35% threshold, dealers will have to sell 630,000, a long haul from the 387,368 new electric vehicles registered in 2024.
It’s not impossible, but unlikely given the trends. Electric sales in California have hit a wall. The market share for all brands of zero-emission vehicles fell to 21.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, which was down from 23.7% in the third quarter, according to the California New Car Dealers Association.
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